Luke,
My guess is a 1913 model P or the following 1914 model V (footrests and 2-speed gear, no valence on the front mudguard.) Probably the later, as I believe they changed from straight fork links to the curved ones shown here in the course of the 1914 model year. They are not cataloged except on the larger 3-1/2hp machine, but there are pictures of 1914 2-3/4hp models fitted with the curved links. The shape of the rear carrier does not look like what they changed to in 1916. Also it looks like the rear stand pivot is on the lower chain stay tube instead of below the axle lug (1915.) So hence 1914, and perhaps mid- to late 1914 at that.
-Doug